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US Banking Channel Forecast: How shifting consumer habits and the coronavirus pandemic are reshaping banking usage

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The pandemic has unleashed a surge of digitization in banking—a trend set to continue even in the post-pandemic era. Stay-at-home orders and a desire for contactless service encouraged many consumers to overcome their reluctance toward managing finances through online channels.

ii USBC Digital

In the US Banking Channel Forecast, Insider Intelligence predicts the transformation of five key banking channels in the US between 2020 and 2024: branches, ATMs,  smartphones, call centers, and digital platforms. Below, we briefly outline some of the key takeaways from the report.

Branches

Consumers' reduced dependence on physical branches amid the pandemic caused a drop in branch penetration in 2020 and, as consumers become more accustomed to digital channels, we expect this trend to continue. US branch penetration will drop from 70.1% in 2019 to 62.3% in 2024.

ATMs

Insider Intelligence expects ATM penetration to stay around its current levels, as they outnumber branches in the US by more than five to one. ATM penetration will remain steady, up marginally to 71.9% in 2024 from 71.2% in 2019.

Smartphone Banking

While the massive leap in smartphone banking in 2020 was a pandemic-induced "sugar rush," growth in the channel's penetration will remain strong after the crisis abates. The length and severe nature of the coronavirus crisis in the US has given new mobile banking consumers plenty of time to cement their preferences.

Call Centers

Call center penetration soared in 2020 as customers sought answers to pandemic-related concerns, such as stimulus check status and financial relief efforts. Penetration growth will taper off from 2020 levels through 2024, but still remain above 2019 levels. 

Digital Banking 

While digital banking growth will inevitably tail off as saturation levels approach, consumers will continue gravitating toward digital channels. More US consumers will also open accounts with digital-only banks. Overall, Insider Intelligence forecasts that digital banking penetration will jump from 66.9% in 2019 to 79.3% in 2024.

Want to Learn More? 

Insider Intelligence's US Banking Channel Forecast takes a deeper dive into the categories outlined above — identifying the drivers behind the trajectory of each channel's penetration, including changes in consumer behavior or advancements in technology.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how you can gain access:

  1. Join other Insider Intelligence clients who receive this report, along with thousands of other Banking forecasts, briefings, charts, and research reports to their inboxes. >> Become a Client
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Four Impediments to CX Excellence

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Customers' expectations around experience are changing.

94% US consumers ages 18 and older surveyed in May 2020 by Qualtrics' XM Institute described themselves as very likely to make more purchases from companies across all industries that provided "very good" customer experience (CX).

As critical as CX is, it wouldn't offer competitive advantages if every brand was successful at delivering strong CX. While many organizations are making progress, more are struggling to consistently deliver the best possible experience.

In "4 Impediments to CX Excellence," Insider Intelligence details the obstacles to implementing a powerful customer experience and how they can be overcome.

Simply enter your information to get a copy of this exclusive PDF and to start receiving the eMarketer Retail newsletter, which covers today's most important trends in the world of commerce.

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Social Commerce 2021: Social media and ecommerce convergence trends brings growth opportunity for brands - CLONE

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The immediacy and convenience of online shopping has led to massive growth in ecommerce—and social distancing and stay-at-home orders amid the coronavirus pandemic further propelled its popularity. According to an Insider Intelligence forecast, the average time spent per day with social networks increased from 56.23 minutes in 2019 to 65.44 minutes in 2020.

Social Commerce Buyers Growth

The rise in ecommerce combined with the 16.4% growth in social media usage year-over-year encouraged companies to turn to influencer marketing and user generated content to promote brand awareness. And as brands continue to leverage social media checkout and shopping integrations, tech-savvy Millennials and Gen Zers, who are familiar with and motivated by influencer content, will likely engage with social commerce more often.

What is social commerce?

Social commerce falls under the larger ecommerce umbrella, and refers to when a consumer's shopping experience occurs directly on a social media platform. It can also include clicking links on a social network that lead to a retailer's product page with an immediate purchase option. 

Social commerce marketing strategies for brands

No one marketing strategy is going to work for every brand—a social shopping experience for athleisure is going to look very different from a campaign for electronics. However, all brands can utilize influencers, consumer call to actions, and user generated content, to successfully compete in the social commerce market. Holiday Influencer Sponsorships

Phrases such as "swipe up to purchase," or "store link in bio," have become extremely popular calls to action—pushing social media users to purchase the items or services they see advertised on their newsfeeds. 

User-generated content has risen in importance for marketers—with TikTok videos and hashtag challenges providing value for brands. This viewer-friendly content combined with appropriate call to action steps has been a boon for advertisers and marketers alike. In addition to these organic opportunities, companies should keep influencers top of mind when planning their social commerce strategy.

In 2019, Instagram gave some influencers the ability to create shoppable posts using Checkout on Instagram, while Snapchat gave select top-tier influencers a "shop" button. And even TikTok has tapped the social commerce market—announcing its partnership with Shopify in November 2020. 

According to an August 2019 GlobalWebIndex survey, 17% of internet users in the US and the UK said they were inspired to make a purchase in the past month because of an influencer or celebrity social media post. The response showed that influencers had as much sway over purchases as newsfeed ads (17%) and ads on ephemeral stories (16%).

Social commerce trends

Thanks to the example set by China, brands remain optimistic about the future of social commerce. According to Insider Intelligence's Social Commerce 2021 report, social commerce will be a key source of ecommerce growth in the US, and China offers a road map for innovation.  wechat ban trump order

Specifically, China's WeChat platform will stand as the model US companies and other brands will look to when constructing a social commerce strategy. By allowing merchants to house virtual storefronts on the platform, WeChat functions as a one-stop shop for ecommerce.

While consumers may go online to search for a product that they need, social commerce could fill a void when people go online without knowledge of what they're looking for or even intent to buy. Through social media platforms, brands and companies are looking to help consumers with product discovery.

Examples of social commerce companies

Social media companies have comparative strengths that determine its approach to social commerce. Here are some of the top social media platforms that are helping brands leverage social commerce: 

Facebook

Facebook's massive scale is what drives it to the top of the list brands look to when deciding where to market. According to a June 2020 survey conducted by Bizrate Insights, Facebook had the highest penetration of users that had conducted a purchase on the platform at 18.3%.  facebook shops

In 2020, Facebook launched Facebook Shops—a mobile platform where businesses can create online stores for free—to help small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) bring their storefronts online amid the pandemic. And if the effort is successful, Facebook Shops could work its way upstream to larger brands.

Instagram

1. IG Home

The influencer culture associated with Facebook-owned Instagram makes it a top player in the social commerce space. According to Linqia's "The State of Influencer Marketing 2020" report, Instagram ranked as the top social media platform among US marketers at 97%.

In 2019 Instagram launched Instagram Checkout— streamlining the way brands allow purchases directly on the platform. In 2020 Instagram took their shoppable content a step further by placing the shop tab icon at the bottom of the homepage. This enables Instagram users to click on the icon and instantly see and purchase products advertised by brands, influencers, or celebrities they follow.

Pinterest

Some of the most popular categories searched on Pinterest have to do with interior design, fashion, and health & fitness—making its contextual relevance for shopping and brand awareness an ideal platform for social commerce. 

While Pinterest drives significantly less engagement than Facebook, it still registers as a key purchase channel because it's entire premise is centered around creating inspiration for what to buy. 

TikTok

Even though TikTok is new to the social commerce industry, its heritage as a Chinese company already gives it a leg up on platform competitors as it has the benefit of understanding what's worked and what hasn't in other markets.

TikTok's algorithmic prowess and engaged, tech-savvy user base have potential to unleash rapid growth as it achieves product-market fit. And its recent tie-up with Walmart gives it a formidable ecommerce partner to fuel and fulfill consumer demand.aerie tiktok

Twitter

Probably the least popular social platform when it comes to social commerce is Twitter—especially after dropping its buy button feature in 2017. But the platform does offer marketers and brands the ability to engage in social listening, which can later assist in their social commerce strategy.

By gaining insight to exactly what their audience is talking about, being honest about what they like and what they don't like, brands can analyze that information and develop a social media strategy based off of the data collected. 

Social commerce market stats & outlook

Insider Intelligence forecasts that US retail social commerce sales will rise by 34.8% to $36.09 billion in 2021, representing 4.3% of all retail ecommerce sales. And while fashion categories including apparel and accessories remain the largest for social commerce, other lifestyle brands looking to market electronics and home decor are also key players. And brands featuring new and differentiated products are best suited for the social commerce environment.

Want to learn more? 

Insider Intelligence's Social Commerce 2021 Report includes updated US social commerce forecasts, analysis of the latest social commerce capabilities, and marketing strategies for brands.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how you can gain access:

  1. Join other Insider Intelligence clients who receive this report, along with thousands of other Media, Advertising, and Marketing forecasts, briefings, charts, and research reports to their inboxes. >> Become a Client
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See the forces driving digital transformation in the insurance business

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Insurers have long lagged behind other industries when it comes to digital capabilities, but industry disruption is nearing a tipping point where incumbents either catch up or fall off.

Insider Intelligence analyzes the forces driving digital transformation in the insurance business

Several factors are leading legacy insurers to digitally transform, including changing consumer demands, technological advances, and new regulation. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic is driving even greater demand for innovative offerings and solutions for customers and insurers alike. While the virus will eventually pass, technology's profound impact on the industry is here to stay.

In the Future of Insurance: Digitization slide deck, Insider Intelligence analyzes the forces driving digital transformation in the insurance business.

This exclusive slide deck can be yours for FREE today.

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Sports gambling opportunities for marketers

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The legalization of sports gambling in more than 20 US states has opened new business opportunities, and potential pitfalls, for broadcasters and streaming services that seek to tie in betting content, such as fantasy leagues, with live broadcasts—or at least market separately to the sports viewing and gambling audiences.

Chart showing increase in sports betting revenues

The American Gaming Association (AGA) keeps a running tab of US states where sports gambling is legal, along with ones where betting has been legalized but is not yet live. It also tallies states with active sports gambling legislation as well as those with no legislation or dead legislation. As of May 2021, sports gambling was legal and active in 21 states plus the District of Columbia. An additional six states had legalized betting but did not yet have live services, and 14 other states had active pre-filed legislation aimed at legalization. Only 9 US states had either no legislation or dead legislation at that time.

A study by research and brokerage firm Gabelli Securities and the US Census Bureau estimates that legalized sports gambling in the US will generate $2.1 billion in revenues this year and projects growth to $10.1 billion by 2028.

Other companies predict even higher revenues from legalized sports betting in the US, with Morgan Stanley estimating a market size of $15 billion by 2025 and Macquarie Research forecasting $30 billion by 2030. In addition, MGM Resorts International projects that sports gambling will generate $13.5 billion by 2025, with 38 US states participating by that time.

Despite the discrepancies in those forecasts, which could result from differences in methodology, the takeaway is that gambling will produce significant new revenues for sports rights holders, as well as opportunities to integrate this content with traditional broadcasts and streams.

To that end, in March 2021, satellite TV and vMVPD provider Dish Network and gambling app DraftKings announced a deal that will incorporate DraftKings content into live sports games. Under the agreement, Dish customers with a Hopper receiver can use the DraftKings app to initiate bets, and then view live games that correspond with those bets on their TVs. The agreement also includes fantasy league content. Prior to the announcement, DraftKings ran two 15-second ads during the Super Bowl.

Another early entrant into the US sports gambling business is fuboTV, a sports-focused vMVPD. The company has market access licenses, pending regulatory approval, in New Jersey, Indiana, and Iowa, and is in advanced discussions with other states, according to co-founder and CEO David Gandler.

"Video and wagering are adjacent businesses and business models that work well with one another using the same demographic," he said. "We've surveyed users on our platform and found that 20% of fuboTV viewers bet on a regular basis, and 22% are willing to place bets on fuboTV in a seamless experience. So that's overindexing on the number of people that would like to play."

Jason Wiese, senior vice president and director of strategic insights at the Vab (formerly the Video Advertising Bureau), is also a sports gambling enthusiast. He said, "I'm personally very excited about legalized sports gambling. It's another way to engage fans and entice younger adults to come into sports franchises. In our research, we found that 26% of adults ages 25 to 34 are more likely to watch more sports if they're gambling within sports."

In another sign of the momentum of sports gambling in the US, the 19 regional sports networks owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group were rebranded to Bally's in an agreement between the broadcaster and the casino operator.

These initiatives notwithstanding, some experts are cautious about the nexus between sports and gambling.

"Gambling in general is a sensitive topic for brands and advertisers," said JoAnna Foyle, senior vice president of inventory partnerships at The Trade Desk. "Regardless of legality, it's just not typically a place that some of the more conservative brands want to be. That's not to say there won't be participation or that gambling won't attract more advertisers, but at least with the biggest brands, there are question marks."

In late 2020, the AGA tried to get in front of brand safety and other concerns by forming a compliance review board to enforce the association's Responsible Marketing Code for Sports Wagering. The project was inspired partly by the experiences of European countries with sports wagering, where in some cases, countries implemented advertising crackdowns in response to complaints about ads being served to underage customers or other inappropriate uses of gambling-related marketing.

It's too soon to gauge how the convergence of gambling and sports will play out in the US, but early indications point to a lucrative market with potential pitfalls—not unlike social media companies, which have had to balance their financial success with concerns around the suitability of their content and marketing practices.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how you can gain access:

  1. Join other Insider Intelligence clients who receive this report, along with thousands of other Media, Advertising, and Marketing forecasts, briefings, charts, and research reports to their inboxes. >> Become a Client
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This article was originally published on eMarketer.

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THE PAYMENTS ECOSYSTEM: The biggest shifts and trends driving short- and long-term growth and shaping the future of the industry

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The power dynamics in the payments industry are changing as businesses and consumers shift dollars from cash and checks to digital payment methods. Cards dominate the in-store retail channel, but mobile wallets like Apple Pay are seeing a rapid uptick in usage.

At the same time, e-commerce will chip away at brick-and-mortar retail as smartphones attract a rising share of digital shopping. Digital peer-to-peer (P2P) apps are supplanting cash in the day-to-day lives of users across generations as they become more appealing and useful than ever.

And change is trickling down into bigger industries long-dominated by cash and check, like remittances and business-to-business payments.

In response, providers are scrambling for market share. Skyrocketing consolidation that creates mega-giants is forcing providers to diversify in search of new volume.

New entrants, especially from big tech, are threatening the leads of giants. And as payments become increasingly effortless, new types of fraud are threatening data security and privacy. While demand for richer payments offerings is creating opportunities across the space, it's also leaving the industry in search of ways to adapt to change that is putting trillions in volume and billions in revenue up for grabs.

In this report, Insider Intelligence examines the payments ecosystem today, its growth drivers, and where the industry is headed. It begins by tracing the path of an in-store card payment from processing to settlement across the key stakeholders. That process is central to understanding payments, and has changed slowly in the face of disruption.

The report also forecasts growth and defines drivers for key digital payment types through 2024. Finally, it highlights three trends that are changing payments, looking at how disparate factors, such as new market entrants and surging fraud, are sparking change across the ecosystem.

The companies mentioned in this report are: ACI Worldwide, Adyen, Amazon, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Braintree, Bento for Business, Capital One, Citi, Diebold Nixdorf, Discover, Earthport, Elavon, EVO, Facebook, First Data, Fiserv, FIS, Global Payments, Goldman Sachs, Google, Green Dot, Honda, Ingenico, Intuit, JPMorgan Chase, Kabbage, Macy's, Mastercard, MICROS, MoneyGram, NatWest, NICE, NCR, Oracle, Paymentus, PayPal, Rambus, Remitly, Ria, Samsung, SiriusXM, SF Systems, Square, Stripe, Synchrony Financial, The Clearing House, Target, Tipalti, Toast, Transfast, TSYS, Venmo, Verifone, Vocalink, Visa, Walmart, Wells Fargo, WePay, Western Union, Xoom, Zelle

Here are some of the key takeaways from this report:

  • In-store payment methods are still on the rise in the US, comprising 89% of retail volume this year. Credit and debit cards continue to lead the segment, as cash and check usage slowly ticks downward. But surging contactless penetration is set to bring mobile in-store payments to prominence for the first time in the years ahead.
  • Surging e-commerce will eat away at in-store payments' share of overall retail. PCs will continue to lead the way, but smartphones will inch closer to being the top channel for purchasing, in turn driving growth. At the same time, new payment tools, like voice assistants, wearables, and even cars will begin to give consumers even easier ways to pay.
  • The digitization of payments isn't just contained to retail, though, with mobile P2P payments, digital remittances, and digital business payments continuing to blossom as change spreads through the ecosystem.

In full, the report:

  • Traces the path of an in-store card payment from processing to settlement across key stakeholders.
  • Discusses emerging alternatives to card payments.
  • Examines the shifting role of key categories of providers as the ecosystem digitizes and matures.
  • Forecasts growth in key categories, including in-store payments, e-commerce, mobile P2P payments, remittances, and B2B payments.
  • Identifies three trends set to shape payments in 2020 and evaluates what changes the ecosystem is set to undergo.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how to get access:

  1. Purchase & download the full report from our research store. >> Purchase & Download Now
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The Future of Fintech: AI & Blockchain

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Sweeping global regulations, the growing penetration of digital devices, and a slew of investor interest are catapulting the fintech industry to new highs.

Of the many emerging technologies poised to transform financial services, two of the most promising and mature are artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain.

74% of banking executives believe AI will transform their industry completely, and 46% of global financial services employees expect blockchain to improve transparency and data management.

In The Future of Fintech: AI & Blockchain slide deck, Insider Intelligence explores the opportunities and hurdles of adopting the two technologies within financial services.

This exclusive slide deck can be yours for FREE today.

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Chatbots 101: How AI is Fueling the Disruptive Force in Customer Relations

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Advancements in artificial intelligence, coupled with the rise of messaging apps, are fueling the development of chatbots — software programs that use messaging as the interface through which to carry out any number of tasks, from scheduling a meeting, to reporting the weather, to helping users buy a pair of shoes. Amazon echo

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Businesses are foreseeing immense potential and are investing heavily in this burgeoning chatbot economy. In the near future, chatbots may do everything from distributing media content to offering personalized concierge services.

In The Chatbots 101 Report, Insider Intelligence, Insider's premium research service, breaks down how chatbots work and looks at the future of the market.

This exclusive report can be yours for FREE today.

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[FREE SLIDE DECK] Accelerator Snapshot: Wells Fargo

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A number of major banks have launched fintech accelerator programs in recent years, likely in response to the need to introduce new digital financial services.

In accelerator programs, banks provide startups with access to mentorship, development resources, and sometimes funding opportunities. In return, banks can leverage the innovative solutions that fintech startups offer to support their own digital transformation efforts and remain competitive.

In 2014, US-based bank Wells Fargo, which spends billions of dollars on technology initiatives annually, launched the Wells Fargo Startup Accelerator.

In this Accelerator Snapshot, Insider Intelligence details the goals, operations, and notable participants of Wells Fargo's accelerator program.

This exclusive report can be yours for FREE today.

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PPP SMALL BUSINESS LOANS: How $525 billion in coronavirus-linked loans were spread across lenders, states, and industries

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ppp lenders second round update

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In April, the US government launched the historic Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to provide financial assistance to small businesses struggling amid the coronavirus pandemic. A staggering $659 billion was allocated to the PPP across two separate installments, with funds for the $349 billion first round being tapped out in less than two weeks. But uptake slowed during round two as larger businesses returned loans following public outcry, while complex requirements and murky loan forgiveness guidelines deterred small businesses from applying. At the program's close on August 8, $134 billion was left undrawn.

Banks that acted decisively in deploying PPP loans stood to earn new clients and goodwill from regulators, as well as a slice of billions in loan fees. Despite early missteps, they achieved much of what they set out to do, getting $525 billion of much-needed aid to US small businesses. Some banks had hitches in their PPP loan applications, funds weren't going to the areas that needed them the most, and larger loans were favored by several institutions—but most of these issues were mitigated or rectified by the end of the program in August. Now their objective has pivoted to processing loan forgiveness applications, a task that might be even more strenuous than approving loans.

In PPP Small Business Loans — the final of three updates — Insider Intelligence looks at how different lenders fared at implementing the PPP by examining the available data on PPP lenders' approval patterns and providing insights into how loans were spread across top lenders, geographies, and industries as of the program's end on August 8. We assess the program's overall effectiveness in distributing aid to US small businesses, and look ahead to potential future initiatives as the pandemic continues. 

The companies mentioned in the report include: Bank of America, BMO Harris, Citibank, Cross River Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Kabbage, KeyBank, M&T Bank, PayPal, PNC Bank, Truist Bank, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo.

Here are a few key takeaways from the report:

  • Banks had clear incentives to work fast, but they also faced unprecedented logistical challenges and uncertainty during the program's first round, which contributed to some snags in implementation. 
  • Demand for loans greatly decelerated in the PPP's second round, despite Congress's steps to alleviate concerns around forgiveness. Continuous revision of guidelines likely had the opposite effect, in fact, in making it harder for businesses to understand requirements. Still, banks made significant headway toward approving smaller loans in the program's second round.
  • Chase and Bank of America came out on top with total approved sums as of August 8, with $28.35 billion and $25.56 billion respectively. Both volumes are significantly higher than the banks' first round totals, in line with our expectation that some key players that lagged in round one of the PPP would catch up in round two. 
  • BMO Harris, KeyBank, and M&T Bank had the highest average loan sizes among top lenders, while New Jersey-based community bank Cross River Bank and Wells Fargo had the lowest. BMO Harris did a better job than KeyBank and M&T in reducing its average loan size compared with the PPP's first installment.
  • Cross River was by far the smallest bank among top lenders, managing to approve an whopping 66% of its total assets. The community bank's impressive performance was supported by its partnerships with fintechs such as Kabbage and QuickBooks.
  • The PPP was more successful in getting funds to hard-hit states during the second installment, though it had a mixed track record of reaching the hardest-hit industry sectors. In some industries, significant need for funds was matched with higher supply, such as in healthcare. But some of the most impacted industries, like accommodation and food, didn't get the level of relief they needed.

In full, the report:

  • Combines official Small Business Administration data with additional sources, such as company filings and earnings calls, an academic paper, and analyst research, to generate insights into how different lenders fared at implementing the PPP as of its close on August 8. 
  • Looks into PPP loan sizes and total fees gained by lenders, and examines total funded loans and average loan amounts for the top PPP lenders.
  • Provides key takeaways from the analysis of approved loan figures by industry and geography.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how you can gain access:

  1. Join other Insider Intelligence clients who receive this report, along with thousands of other Banking forecasts, briefings, charts, and research reports to their inboxes. >> Become a Client
  2. Purchase both the original May and July update along with this report from our store — for the price of one report. >> Buy All Three Reports Here

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Identify which digital banking features and categories are most valuable to customers

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Our inaugural UK Neobank Competitive Edge Study puts a spotlight on digital-only banks' key mobile features, a crucial element of their explosive rise.

Leveraging data from our own survey of 1,100 mobile banking users, our analysts ranked 39 innovative mobile banking features based on value. We then ranked the top four UK neobanks—Monese, Monzo, Revolut, and Starling Bank—using a weighted scorecard that assigns a level of demand for each feature.

This report is critical for leaders at all banks worldwide. Incumbents and neobanks alike can use the findings to benchmark their digital offerings against key competitors, identify which features and categories are most valuable to prospective customers, and pinpoint areas of weakness.

Simply enter your information to learn more about Insider Intelligence Financial Services coverage and to obtain a preview of our UK Neobank Competitive Edge Report.

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XR Technologies and Trends: Pandemic ushers in immersive experiences

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Extended reality (XR) technologies, including virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and mixed reality (MR) are still in the early phases of adoption, but they are evolving quickly. While most use cases for VR and AR are still related to gaming, entertainment, and social media, the variety of applications is expanding as more consumers and businesses test out immersive experiences.

Because the pandemic has forced many people to work, socialize, study, and shop at home, they're using XR experiences to replace in-person ones. This year, 58.9 million people in the US will use VR, and 93.3 million people will use AR at least once per month.

US AR VR Users

Though VR and AR are different technologies growing at different rates, the pandemic appears to have galvanized the market for both.

VR and AR usage impacted by COVID-19

VR and AR usage has increased as more people stay home and pursue activities aligned with crowd avoidance and social distancing, including video gaming, consuming entertainment, participating in social VR, using AR features on social networks, and experimenting with virtual try-ons, virtual shopping, and 360-degree travel videos. For example, June 2020 research by Ipsos and the Global Myopia Awareness Coalition (GMAC) found that 58% of US children and teens spent more time with smartphones, 53% spent more time with video game consoles, and 15% spent more time with VR headsets since the pandemic began. In general, people who owned VR headsets used them more; others explored nonheadset options or considered buying headsets.

Extended reality trends

The move to remote and virtual work, studying, and other home-based activities has created interest in new and more useful applications of VR and AR beyond gaming. Virtual fitness, business collaboration, and distance learning are just three of many examples. With more development and more demand, VR and AR are increasingly being seen as viable replacements for in-person training, meetings, events, conventions, customer service, healthcare, and other activities.

Top companies investing in XR

The pandemic has turned XR into an even more important growth area for Big Tech. While Facebook is on its way to becoming the VR leader in the US with its Oculus ecosystem, it is also investing in AR. Other heavy hitters, including Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Samsung, are all reported to be racing to introduce their own VR, AR, and/or MR solutions to grow the market and capitalize on increasing demand.

5G VR stats

XR developers are optimistic about the rollout of 5G wireless service—both in the US and around the world. Higher-speed 5G networks are expected to eliminate many persistent technical difficulties and boost XR's viability. In an April 2020 survey conducted by Toluna and Advertiser Perceptions on behalf of Verizon Media, 44% of US adults cited streaming VR content and 36% cited AR experiences as expected benefits of 5G technology. Likewise, a majority of adults in South Korea, the UK, and the US found the idea of subscription-based VR and AR at least somewhat appealing, according to a January 2020 Nokia poll conducted by Parks Associates. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of respondents found a subscription to VR experiences appealing or very appealing, while 70% and 65%, respectively, said the same for AR experiences and VR sports.

Interested in getting the full report? Here's how you can gain access:

  1. Join other Insider Intelligence clients who receive this report, along with thousands of other Technology forecasts, briefings, charts, and research reports to their inboxes. >> Become a Client
  2. Purchase the individual report from our store. >> Buy The Report Here

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Apple's state ID feature might catalyze Apple Pay use and bolster ecosystem engagement

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Residents in eight states, including Arizona, Connecticut, and Georgia, will soon be able to add their state IDs and driver's licenses to the Apple Wallet, Apple confirmed in a press release.

Chart showing Apple pay users will reach 43.9 million this year.

Apple plans to enable the feature in other states soon and said that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will accept the digital IDs for travel at select airport security checkpoints. The tech giant first hinted at plans to enable the feature back in June.

The digital ID feature can help boost Apple Pay's US user base, which is expected to hit 43.9 million this year, accounting for 43.4% of all proximity mobile payment users, per Insider Intelligence forecasts.

  • The digital ID feature might incentivize iPhone users to put credentials in Apple Wallet that eventually get them on board with Apple Pay. Less than 40% of iPhone owners use Apple Pay, giving the wallet a large untapped addressable market. The ID feature offers a variety of use cases—like verification for traveling or opening a bank account—which might be an attractive perk for users who may not have considered using Apple Wallet before. Converting them into Apple Pay users could bolster volume and increase Apple's share of US mobile payments.
  • And the feature can increase engagement within Apple Pay's ecosystem, which might boost adoption for other payment products. Giving existing Apple Pay users another reason to use Apple Wallet keeps customers tied to its ecosystem. This can increase Apple's already strong brand loyalty and might make users more inclined to try out other Apple payment solutions, like the Apple Card—giving the tech giant a stronger foothold in the payments space.

Apple has launched and expanded several other Apple Wallet and Pay features—pointing to a broader customer acquisition and engagement push.

In August, Apple expanded its student ID feature, which lets students at participating universities add their student IDs to Apple Wallet. And Apple created shockwaves in July when rumors surfaced of plans to launch a buy now, pay later product for Apple Pay. Though the latter remains unconfirmed, it's clear that Apple is ramping up offerings that give customers more convenience and incentives to use its services—which may eventually help it close the gap between iPhone and Apple Pay users.

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Insurify scores $100 million as online insurance shopping takes center stage

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The US-based insurance comparison platform netted a $100 million Series B mega-round led by Motive Partners, per BusinessWire.

chart showing us insurance agents biggest challenge during the coronavirus pandemic and the most significant capability they want from isuers

Insurify calls itself a virtual insurance agent—it's fully licensed and offers quotes from more than 100 carriers across auto, home, and life insurance. Insurify's platform relies on real-time integrations with insurers and AI-powered recommendations tailored to each browser.

Insurify was founded in 2016 and has enjoyed stellar growth in the past few years: Its new and recurring revenues have grown six times over since the end of 2019.

Insurify will add lines of business on its platform while also exploring additional embedded insurance opportunities.

  • New insurance. Insurify has teased that it could add pet insurance, which could be a boon for the insurtech given the fast growth in this insurance line: Premiums jumped 27.5% YoY in the US last year.
  • Embedded insurance. Insurify scored partnerships earlier this year with Nationwide and Toyota Insurance Management Solutions. Partnering with incumbents expands Insurify's distribution to their sizable customer bases—and it will likely explore similar partnerships to power new revenue growth.

Fellow US insurance comparison players Zebra and Jerry received $150 million and $75 million, respectively, this year. The pandemic accelerated the digitization of insurance sales, and this has increased investor interest in insurtech comparison websites—we expect more funding to flow to these platforms.

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Revolut is targeting billions in new revenue before IPO

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UK neobank Revolut is trying to increase its revenue into the "few billion dollars" range in order to go public successfully, founder and CEO Nik Storonsky told Bloomberg Television. Storonsky did not set a timeline for the IPO.

total uk digital banking market share of select neobanks

The neobank is far away from a multi-billion dollar revenue goal. Its revenue last year was only £261 million ($334.7 million), and its overall operating loss was £201 million ($257.8 million). In July, Revolut raised $800 million at a valuation of $33 billion.

The neobank has been hard at work this year growing its product offerings:

  • It announced this week that it's planning US rollouts of an unsecured line of credit this fall, and credit card offerings at the end of 2021 or in Q1 2022.
  • It added a US-Mexico remittances feature, which carries a percentage-based transaction fee of 0.30%, which is set within a fixed range: Users will pay at least $0.30, but no more than $6.00 per transaction.
  • In addition, ithas rolled out a slew of features for SMBs in 2021 that include invoicing, QR code payment, and expense management.

If Revolut's goal is to drive up revenue to make an IPO possible in the short term, we're going to see more efforts to monetize its gigantic customer base—15.5 million clients as of Q1 2021.

Revolut has a few tools at its disposal, some of which it's tried before:

  • Increase fees. A fast way to boost the bottom line is to charge more for services, for example via commissions on stock or crypto trades or on foreign exchange fees. However, it's as risky as it is easy, as it could damage customer satisfaction. The neobank used this strategy in August when it hiked its securities trading fee for the second time in less than a year.
  • Drive sign-ups for its paid accounts. Adding features and perks to its paid accounts—Plus ($3.83 per month), Premium ($8.96 per month), and Metal ($16.66 per month)—could entice more of its nonpaying customers to pay for those upper-tier accounts. Revolut deployed this tactic in June when it rolled out new purchase protection and insurance benefits for paid accounts.
  • Launch new revenue-driving products. Offering a wider range of products that generate fee or interest revenue, such as loans or credit cards, can also benefit Revolut's bottom line. Its upcoming credit offerings in the US are a prime example of this strategy.

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Key credit card recovery tactics

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In "Credit Cards' Recovery Tactics," a selected chapter from our full "Credit Cards in the Next Normal" report, we examine to what extent the pandemic halted credit card transaction volume growth, and touch on what the next steps will be as reopening progresses.

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Facebook will experience its slowest US user growth ever in 2021

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In 2021, the number of monthly Facebook users in the US will increase by less than 1% year over year, the platform's lowest annual growth rate to date. 

Chart showing the change in Facebook users between 2019 and 2025

Much of this deceleration is due to last year's faster-than-expected growth of 3.3%, which was driven by changes in media habits during the pandemic. That helped to push future accelerations forward, and as a result, Facebook will see slower user growth for the rest of our forecast period, which ends in 2025.

Facebook's changing user demographics are also playing a role. The number of users ages 12 to 17 will drop from 9.9 million in 2019 to 9.1 million this year, to 8.2 million by the end of 2025. And the number of 18- to 24-year-old users will fall from 20.0 million in 2019 to 19.1 million this year, to just 17.8 million in 2025.

The "young-person exodus" is hardly a new story for Facebook and continues to depress its overall user growth. While the platform will gain 19.4 million users ages 25 and older between 2019 and 2025, it will lose 4.1 million users ages 12 to 24 during that time frame.

Even so, Facebook will maintain its 60.9% penetration of US internet users through the end of our forecast, as well as its standing as the No. 1 social network based on total monthly users. Its sister property Instagram ranks second with 118.9 million monthly users expected this year, followed by Pinterest with 91.1 million. Chart showing the number of social network users by platform 

Third-party surveys place the platforms in roughly the same order. For example, an Edison Research and Triton Digital study found that 61% of US consumers ages 12 and older were on Facebook as of January 2021, down slightly from 63% in 2020. Instagram, Pinterest, Snapchat, and TikTok rounded out the top five.

What it means for marketers: Even though there have been many calls for users to delete their Facebook accounts when one crisis or another has surfaced, the social network has been able to retain the majority of its base, and it continues to eke out growth.

Facebook's ongoing attempts to reduce dissent and negativity and turn the platform into a more positive place may help staunch some of the outflow (but likely won't attract new users). What probably won't help, however, is if Facebook decides to make its indefinite ban of former President Donald Trump permanent: 50% of US adults surveyed by Pew Research Center in April said the ban shouldn't be permanent, while 49% thought it should. This suggests Facebook users are heavily divided on the topic.

Another question on marketers' minds is whether Facebook users will change how they use the platform in response to the recent rollout of Apple's iOS 14.5 and its pop-up notification allowing users to opt in or out of tracking.

We don't expect most users to stop using Facebook because of the notification, but it will cause some to feel differently about Facebook using their data.

So far, there is conflicting data on how many consumers will opt in to tracking or not. On the positive side, a January 2021 survey from SellCell, an online marketplace for selling pre-owned mobile devices, found that 39% of US iPhone or iPad users would consent to tracking if it was by a familiar app like Facebook or Instagram.

But another study, from Flurry (a unit of Verizon), found that just 5% of US iOS 14.5 users opted in to tracking in early May. Flurry said that its analytics tool is installed in more than 1 million mobile applications, and that it has tracked daily opt-in rates through data from 2.5 million daily active mobile users.

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Forecast eCommerce trends predicted for Amazon will beat expectations in 2021

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Amazon's US ecommerce sales will grow by 15.3% this year to $367.19 billion after a meteoric 44.1% rise in sales during 2020.

Amazon dominates US ecommerce

Ecommerce sales at many of Amazon's competitors—including Walmart and Target—are growing faster, but Amazon's sales are still growing faster than the overall market. Its share of US ecommerce sales will increase from 39.8% in 2020 to 40.4% in 2021, and at a gain of 0.6 percentage points, this growth will be larger than that of any other company this year.

Amazon eCommerce statistics - what's changed:

  • Amazon sales blew past our pre-pandemic expectations for 2020. Before the pandemic, we estimated that Amazon's US sales would grow 17.2% to reach $260.86 billion in 2020. Instead, they grew 44.1%, reaching $318.41 billion.
  • In line with overall ecommerce trends, Amazon's US sales growth was higher than expected in 2020 across every category. The largest upward revisions were to food/beverage, which grew 78.5% in 2020, compared with our pre-pandemic estimate of 22.7%. "Other"—driven by increased demand for home improvement products—grew 58.0%, compared with our pre-pandemic estimate of 18.7%.

There are two verticals where Amazon receives the majority of US ecommerce sales: books/music/video (83.2% of all US ecommerce sales in 2021) and computer/consumer electronics (50.2%).

The ecommerce giant will receive more than 45% of US ecommerce sales dollars this year in three additional categories: "other" (48.2%), toys/hobby (46.0%), and office equipment/supplies (45.6%).

Another way of looking at it: Amazon will receive more than one-quarter of US ecommerce sales dollars for every category other than auto/parts.

Amazon generates its largest portion of sales from computer/consumer electronics, which will make up more than one-quarter (26.6%) of its total US sales this year. Apparel/accessories is Amazon's second-largest sales generator in the US, making up 16% of its total US ecommerce sales in 2021.

This year, Amazon's fastest-growing segment will be food/beverage (24.7%) as digital grocery continues to propel growth in a relatively low-base category. (Food/beverage will make up just 3.7% of Amazon's US ecommerce sales in 2021.) Apparel/accessories, already Amazon's second-largest sales category, will also be its second-fastest-growing category, at 21.4% in 2021.

Amazon eCommerce statistics - what's expected:

  • It will beat total sales expectations again in 2021. Our pre-pandemic estimates had Amazon growing 15.9% to $302.36 billion this year. We now expect it'll grow 15.3%, reaching $367.19 billion, an upward revision of more than $64 billion.

(Note: We did not forecast Amazon's sales by category for 2021 before the pandemic.)

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The Death of Cash

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Both globally and in the US, the payments ecosystem is evolving. Death of Cash

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Two related trends: the slow death of cash and the fast rise of digital payments, are transforming how consumers, businesses, governments, and even criminals move money.

Annual global non-cash transactions are expected to pass the 1 trillion milestone by 2024. This major transformation is being propelled by several factors, including increased usage of digital wallets, more small vendors adapting to accept credit cards, and the explosive growth of mobile commerce.

In The Death of Cash slide deck, Business Insider Intelligence projects what the payments ecosystem will look like through 2024 by examining the driving forces powering digital payment proliferation.

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Advertising for Latin American brands are pursuing more diversity in campaigns

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Latin America is a region of many paradoxes. It is home to one of the world's most racially diverse populations, yet many groups remain underrepresented or stereotypically portrayed in the advertising there.

Latin America internet users  don't feel represented majority of digital video ads they see

The population comprises of immigrants from Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East, as well as indigenous Amerindian populations and African groups descended from slaves. It is also one of the most unequal regions in the world in terms of wealth and income, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), a United Nations regional commission to encourage economic cooperation.

Despite Latin America breaking from its colonial past with Spain and Portugal roughly 200 years ago, its advertising industry is still troubled by a notable lack of diversity and representation.

"While brands have made a concerted effort to increase their representation of various racial and ethnic backgrounds and to break away from the traditional portrayal of gender roles in marketing materials, a large percentage of consumers still do not feel represented in advertising," said Matteo Ceurvels, eMarketer director of Latin America research at Insider Intelligence, and author of our recent report "Analyst Take: How Brands in Latin America Are Addressing Diversity and Representation in Advertising."

Latin America advertising stats

About seven in 10 (70.2%) adult internet users in Latin America said they did not feel represented in the majority of digital video ads they saw, according to a March 2021 survey conducted by EMI Research Solutions for Penthera.

As consumers in Latin America become more attuned to brand purpose and messaging, it is increasingly important that companies accurately portray the local communities they target—while also fully embracing diversity in their marketing campaigns. This was a belief shared by more than three-quarters (78%) of internet users in Latin America ages 18 to 74 surveyed in July 2019 by YouGov for Getty Images.

Latin America companies promoting diversity

Latin American ecommerce giant Mercado Libre is one example of a regional company that has embraced diversity in its marketing materials. The company's July 2020 video ad, titled "Libre de ser quien soy" (or "Free to Be Who I Am" in English), reflected on how its diverse employees are empowered to bring their whole selves to work to drive innovation at the company.

In an official statement, Mercado Libre said, "We continue to promote equal opportunities because we believe that diversity is the foundation of innovation [for our users], and that differences both enrich and drive growth."

Brazilian flip-flop and sandal company Havaianas has also taken steps to address diversity and inclusion in its ad content. With its summer 2020 campaign titled #DiasMaisColoridos (#MoreColorfulDays), the company set out to showcase Brazil's vibrant and diverse culture, while leveraging color to celebrate the product's positive energy. A 1-minute video ad demonstrated how the sandals were present in the happy moments of people's lives: dancing samba, playing with friends on the beach, or enjoying a quiet afternoon out at sea.

In an interview with Brazilian news outlet Propmark, creative director Henrique Del Lama said, "The campaign seeks good feelings and all the positive energy associated with each color—an element that is very present throughout the [video]. For example, orange is joy, red is passion, black is strength, yellow is optimism, lilac is wisdom, and white is peace."

The campaign also partnered with Young, Gifted, and Black (YGB), an image bank that offers photos taken by Black women, of Black women. YGB provided pictures of six women to be part of the campaign's out-of-home (OOH) and social media elements.

In the same Propmark interview, YGB founder Joana Mendes said, "Doing this job for Havaianas was very important [to us] since we were able to showcase [Black] women in different positions than people are used to seeing—both in front of and behind the camera."

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